Over the past decade China's automobile market 19.3% compound annual growth rate will come to an end. Global business consulting firm Arrow platinum (AlixPartners) released the "2015 China Automotive Outlook Report" that, in view of this year - sales in July rose only 3.4% in 2015 might be car manufacturers in China the most challenging one year.
Arrow platinum Directors General Manager Lin Lianyun said: "Unless the market rebounded strongly in the second half of this year, or else in 2015 for car manufacturers and dealers since 2008 may be the most pessimistic global recession year inventory is growing, sales are. decline, OEMs are reconsidering production strategy - all these signs indicate that more competitive and business environment is more difficult. " From automobile manufacturers perspective, high growth in the past decade has accelerated the pace of expansion of the major car companies, which triggered foreign media on China's automobile market "excess capacity" thesis everywhere. Although most industry insiders believe that the findings can not simply China's automobile market overcapacity, because plans and release of production capacity with a certain time lag, and the utilization of each company vary, China's automobile market is at best only be regarded as a structural surplus. Indeed, too, according to Arrow platinum data show that the majority of Japanese, European and US OEMs in China's production capacity utilization exceeds 90%, but China's domestic vehicle production plant capacity utilization almost less than 60%. In the industry, more than 85% of capacity utilization is considered to be the minimum operating level profitable.
In the automobile market as a whole for the better, good margin environment, lower capacity utilization may not be exposed to more problems, but over the past two years, the market profit margins continued to decline. According to the reporter to statistics, over the past two years, including SAIC Automotive Group Automotive Group, including gross margin have been in decline among.
The brutal competition in the market is more obvious in the terminal. Weak sales prices plus car prices, so the dealer margin is further diluted. In 2014, the top 100 auto dealer group's gross profit margin and net profit continued to deteriorate, in addition, dealers will further affect the dealer inventories increased cash flow and profitability.
Recently, Jiangsu Province Automobile Exchange Management Association sent a letter to SAIC-GM said that in the Jiangsu region, the Chevrolet brand dealers as a whole is experiencing high inventories, falling profits and inadequate cash flow and many other issues, the association expressed the hope that the SAIC-GM can give some Policy for the above dealer to resolve the existing problems. SAIC-GM insider told the "First Financial Daily" reporters, said that these issues this year is not just the existence of the SAIC-GM dealers, including some past earnings luxury brands are facing the case of problems. Indeed, this year, including Audi BMW and Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Jaguar Land Rover and other luxury brand dealers are exposed to varying degrees of survival, and vehicle manufacturers also have to give some policy support.
Enterprise support is clearly not a permanent solution. In the SAIC-GM insiders opinion, the plight of many dealers are also related to their own business, "the more the market will more difficult time period of survival of the fittest."
Indeed, too, in the market supply and demand imbalance in the background, merger together and "feeding frenzy" situation between dealer groups have begun to appear. Rundong shares shortly after the green group, recently, large property (600704) has announced that its majority-owned subsidiary of Zhejiang Yuantong Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "meta-car") is intended by way of foreign investment participate in the auction held by Zhejiang National Group and Prudential cars 60 percent, eight and under and sincere in Toyota's 20% stake. According to the reporter, and Honest Motors is a company with 10 years of large-scale Automotive Group, under which there are Audi, BMW, Volvo and Nissan, more than 10 4S point, though the point of view from the book, operating income in 2014 and close to 53-car million profit reached 2.7 million yuan. But the industry view, at this stage, "Pong on" This tree Yuantong, clearly not conducive to enhance the anti-risk capability, derived for the future business development are also favorable conditions.
According to the Arrow of platinum is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of China's auto sales in 2018 to about 4% of the existing, in the subsequent five years, this number may be reduced to 2.9%. For dealers, in addition to large environmental impact, but also from the aftermarket to enhance openness.
Arrow platinum is expected to 2018, China's passenger car market overall service and parts CAGR of 14%, amounting to 1 trillion yuan of scale, but the dealer's market share from 49% in 2014 is expected to decreased to 38% in 2018. With the rise of the independent aftermarket, is expected after a large number of car manufacturers warranty will no longer get through the original dealer service.
Therefore, general manager of Mr. Arrow platinum Director Steve Maurer adds, "Since the rise in total vehicle, dealer service department to get repeat customers will become increasingly important in order to reacquire growth and profitability, China must consider a number of car dealers Policy action to adapt to market changes, including improving customer experience, enhanced service, and explore opportunities for car finance expansion, and the development of second-hand car sales-related operational capacity. dealers should also be considered by the store network optimization, employee efficiency and cost control, enhance productivity and efficiency, and adapt to the rapid development of the Internet has brought change. "
From the current point of view, these changes may make some small dealers facing short-term costs and operating pressure, and the search for solutions, the tendency among dealers Baotuan heating may be more apparent. Perhaps, between dealers "feeding frenzy" of the scene will be staged frequently in the next period of time.